{"id":12245,"date":"2016-04-30T16:18:01","date_gmt":"2016-04-30T23:18:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/?p=12245"},"modified":"2016-04-30T23:24:44","modified_gmt":"2016-05-01T06:24:44","slug":"%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e3%83%aa%e3%82%bf%e3%83%bc%e3%83%b3-%e5%88%9d%e6%9c%9f%e9%85%8d%e5%bd%93%e5%88%a9%e5%9b%9e%e3%82%8a-%e9%85%8d%e5%bd%93%e6%88%90%e9%95%b7%e7%8e%87%e3%81%ae%e5%bc%8f%e3%81%ab","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/2016\/04\/30\/12245","title":{"rendered":"\u9577\u671f\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3 = \u521d\u671f\u914d\u5f53\u5229\u56de\u308a + \u914d\u5f53\u6210\u9577\u7387\u306e\u5f0f\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6570\u5e74\u524d\u306b\u65b0\u677f\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u306e\u3092\u6a5f\u306b<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street-ebook\/dp\/B00QH9NTSI\/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&#038;ie=UTF8&#038;qid=1462034777&#038;sr=1-1&#038;keywords=random+walk+down+wall+street\">A Random Walk Down Wall Street<\/a>\u3092\u518d\u8aad\u4e2d(\u3068\u3044\u3063\u3066\u3082\u6700\u521d\u306b\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u306e\u306f2002\u5e74\u3067\u3001\u304b\u306a\u308a\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u5fd8\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c)\u3002\u305d\u306e13\u7ae0\u306b\u3001\u682a\u5f0f\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u9577\u671f\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3092\u793a\u3059\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u304c\u6319\u3052\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f:<\/p>\n<pre class=\"codefrag\">\r\n  \u9577\u671f\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3 = \u521d\u671f\u914d\u5f53\u5229\u56de\u308a + \u914d\u5f53\u6210\u9577\u7387\r\n<\/pre>\n<p>\u4e00\u77ac\u307e\u3042\u305d\u3093\u306a\u3082\u306e\u304b\u3068\u601d\u3063\u3066\u8aad\u307f\u6d41\u3057\u305d\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u5c11\u3057\u3088\u304f\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3069\u3046\u3057\u3066\u3053\u3046\u3044\u3046\u8a08\u7b97\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u304b\u306f(\u7b46\u8005\u306b\u306f)\u3069\u3046\u3082\u81ea\u660e\u3067\u306a\u3044\u3002\u4e00\u5ea6\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308a\u306f\u3058\u3081\u308b\u3068\u591c\u3082\u7720\u308c\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u307e\u3058\u3081\u306b\u8abf\u3079\u305f\u308a\u81ea\u5206\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u308a\u3057\u3066\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306a\u308a\u306b\u7d0d\u5f97\u306e\u3044\u304d\u305d\u3046\u306a\u8aac\u660e\u306b\u305f\u3069\u308a\u7740\u3044\u305f\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306f\u305d\u306e\u8a18\u9332\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u30e1\u30e2\u3002<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u305a\u3001\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u300c\u682a\u5f0f\u306e\u4fa1\u5024(\u3064\u307e\u308a\u682a\u4fa1)\u306f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u6c38\u9060\u306b\u4fdd\u6709\u3057\u305f\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u914d\u5f53\u3092\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u73fe\u5728\u4fa1\u5024\u306b\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u3066\u305d\u308c\u3092\u3059\u3079\u3066\u8db3\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8aac\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b(\u3053\u306e\u8aac\u81ea\u4f53\u304c\u59a5\u5f53\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8b70\u8ad6\u306f\u5225\u9014\u3042\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304c\u3001\u682a\u4fa1\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u5024\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u3088\u304f\u6301\u3061\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u308b\u8aac\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3044\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u3088\u3046)\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u4f1a\u793e\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u306f\u3059\u3079\u3066\u914d\u5f53\u306e\u5f62\u3067\u682a\u4e3b\u306b\u5373\u6642\u9084\u5143\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5358\u7d14\u5316\u3092\u9069\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306b\u306f\u3001\u4f01\u696d\u306f\u5229\u76ca\u306e\u4e00\u90e8\u3092\u7559\u4fdd\u3057\u3066\u5c06\u6765\u4e8b\u696d\u306b\u6295\u8cc7\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3059\u308b(\u305d\u308c\u3069\u3053\u308d\u304b\u914d\u5f53\u3092\u307e\u3063\u305f\u304f\u51fa\u3055\u306a\u3044\u4f1a\u793e\u3082\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u306a\u3044)\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u5358\u7d14\u5316\u306f\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u4f01\u696d\u306b\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u3042\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u5185\u90e8\u7559\u4fdd\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5229\u76ca\u3082\u3044\u305a\u308c\u306f\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u5f62\u3067\u682a\u4e3b\u306b\u9084\u5143\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306f\u305a\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3059\u3079\u3066\u304c\u914d\u5f53\u3068\u3057\u3066(\u3057\u304b\u3082\u5373\u6642\u306b)\u5b9f\u73fe\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3082\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u306f\u5408\u3046\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7406\u5c48\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u7528\u3044\u308b\u5272\u5f15\u7387(r\u3068\u3059\u308b)\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u304b\u3089\u671f\u5f85\u3055\u308c\u308b\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u306e\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u305d\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002N\u5e74\u5f8c\u306e\u914d\u5f53Dn\u306e\u5272\u5f15\u73fe\u5728\u4fa1\u5024X\u306f\u3001X\u3092\u5229\u56de\u308ar\u3067N\u5e74\u904b\u7528\u3057\u305f\u3089Dn\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5024\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3053\u306eDn\u306f\u5f53\u8a72\u682a\u5f0f\u306e\u4fdd\u6709\u306b\u3088\u308b\u904b\u7528\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u682a\u4e3b\u5229\u76ca\u3067\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3001\u682a\u4e3b\u9084\u5143\u304c\u3059\u3079\u3066\u914d\u5f53\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4eee\u5b9a\u3068\u3042\u308f\u305b\u3066\u3001\u7d50\u5c40\u3053\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3092r\u3068\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u59a5\u5f53\u3060\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306b\u8a71\u3092\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u3042\u308b\u5e74\u306e\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306b\u3042\u308b\u4f1a\u793e\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u3092\u8cb7\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u305d\u306e\u914d\u5f53\u304c\u5e74\u4e00\u56de\u3001\u5e74\u672b\u306b\u51fa\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3002\u521d\u671f\u914d\u5f53\u3092D\u3001\u9577\u671f\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3(=\u5272\u5f15\u7387)\u3092r\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5e74\u306e\u5e74\u672b\u306b\u51fa\u308b\u914d\u5f53D\u306e\u8cfc\u5165\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u306e\u4fa1\u5024\u306f1\u5e74\u5206\u306e\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3067\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u305fD\/(1+r)\u3002\u914d\u5f53\u306e\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3092g\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6b21\u306e\u5e74\u306e\u914d\u5f53\u306e\u984d\u306fD*(1+g)\u3001\u3053\u308c\u30922\u5e74\u5206\u306e\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3067\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u73fe\u5728\u4fa1\u5024\u306fD*(1+g)\/(1+r)^2\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3001\u682a\u4fa1(P\u3068\u3059\u308b)\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u5024\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u5f0f\u306b\u3042\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u3068\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308b:<\/p>\n<pre class=\"codefrag\">\r\n  P = D\/(1+r)\r\n      + D*(1+g)\/(1+r)^2\r\n      + D*(1+g)^2\/(1+r)^3\r\n      ...\r\n      + D*(1+g)^n\/(1+r)^(n+1)\r\n      ...\r\n<\/pre>\n<p>\u4e21\u8fba\u306b1+r\u3092\u304b\u3051\u3066\u6574\u7406\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001<\/p>\n<pre class=\"codefrag\">\r\n  (1+r)P = D + D*(1+g)\/(1+r)\r\n             + D*((1+g)\/(1+r))^2\r\n           ...\r\n             + D*((1+g)\/(1+r))^n\r\n           ...\r\n         = D*\u2211(n=0\u2192\u221e; ((1+g)\/(1+r))^n)\r\n<\/pre>\n<p>\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066<\/p>\n<pre class=\"codefrag\">\r\n  (1+r)P\/D = \u2211(n=0\u2192\u221e; ((1+g)\/(1+r))^n)\r\n<\/pre>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u5de6\u8fba\u306f\u6709\u9650\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001(\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u4e71\u66b4\u306a\u8b70\u8ad6\u3060\u304c)\u53f3\u8fba\u306b\u3042\u308b\u7121\u9650\u7d1a\u6570\u306f\u53ce\u675f\u3059\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3001(1+g)\/(1+r)=A\u3068\u304a\u304f\u3068\u305d\u306e\u5024\u306f1\/(1-A) = (1+r)\/(r-g)\u3002\u306a\u306e\u3067\u7d50\u5c40<\/p>\n<pre class=\"codefrag\">\r\n  r = D\/P + g\r\n<\/pre>\n<p>D\/P\u306f\u521d\u671f\u306e\u914d\u5f53\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306e\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u7121\u4e8b<\/p>\n<pre class=\"codefrag\">\r\n  \u9577\u671f\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3 = \u521d\u671f\u914d\u5f53\u5229\u56de\u308a + \u914d\u5f53\u6210\u9577\u7387\r\n<\/pre>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f0f\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306e\u30df\u30bd\u306f\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u682a\u4fa1\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u7d1a\u6570\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u306e\u6b21\u6570\u3068\u6210\u9577\u7387\u306e\u6b21\u6570\u304c1\u3064\u305a\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068(\u524d\u8005\u306f\u521d\u56de\u914d\u5f53\u304b\u3089\u9069\u7528\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u5f8c\u8005\u306f2\u5e74\u76ee\u304b\u3089\u306e\u305f\u3081)\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7121\u9650\u7d1a\u6570\u306e\u53ce\u675f\u5024\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u305f\u3042\u3068\u306e\u4f59\u5206\u306a&#8221;1+r&#8221;\u304c\u304d\u308c\u3044\u306b\u6d88\u3048\u3066\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306a\u5f0f\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u306e\u6839\u62e0\u306b\u306a\u308a\u305d\u3046\u306a\u8cc7\u6599\u3092\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u3050\u3050\u3063\u3066\u63a2\u3057\u3066\u898b\u3064\u304b\u3063\u305f<a href=\"http:\/\/plaza.rakuten.co.jp\/isyamazaki\/diary\/200707060001\/\">\u30b3\u30e9\u30e0<\/a>(?)\u3067\u306f\u3001\u300c\u7b49\u6bd4\u7d1a\u6570\u306e\u548c\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u304b\u3089\u5c0e\u304f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u51fa\u6765\u307e\u3059\u300d\u3068\u3060\u3051\u3055\u3089\u308a\u3068\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u9593\u9055\u3044\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30d2\u30f3\u30c8\u3060\u3051\u3067\u3053\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u306b\u305f\u3069\u308a\u7740\u304f\u306e\u306f\u7d50\u69cb\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u307e\u3068\u3081\u305f(\u81ea\u5df1\u6d41\u306e)\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u306e\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u306f\u5b9f\u306f\u3088\u304f\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3068\u3082\u81ea\u5206\u81ea\u8eab\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u7b4b\u304c\u901a\u3063\u305f\u8aac\u660e\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u6c17\u304c\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u6e80\u8db3\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6570\u5e74\u524d\u306b\u65b0\u677f\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u306e\u3092\u6a5f\u306bA Random Walk Down Wall Street\u3092\u518d\u8aad\u4e2d(\u3068\u3044\u3063\u3066\u3082\u6700\u521d\u306b\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u306e\u306f2002\u5e74\u3067\u3001\u304b\u306a\u308a\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u5fd8\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c)\u3002\u305d\u306e13\u7ae0\u306b\u3001\u682a\u5f0f\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u9577\u671f\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3092\u793a\u3059\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u304c\u6319\u3052\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f: \u9577\u671f\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3 = \u521d\u671f\u914d\u5f53\u5229\u56de\u308a + \u914d\u5f53\u6210\u9577\u7387 \u4e00\u77ac\u307e\u3042\u305d\u3093\u306a\u3082\u306e\u304b\u3068\u601d\u3063\u3066\u8aad\u307f\u6d41\u3057\u305d\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u5c11\u3057\u3088\u304f\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3069\u3046\u3057\u3066\u3053\u3046\u3044\u3046\u8a08\u7b97\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u304b\u306f(\u7b46\u8005\u306b\u306f)\u3069\u3046\u3082\u81ea\u660e\u3067\u306a\u3044\u3002\u4e00\u5ea6\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308a\u306f\u3058\u3081\u308b\u3068\u591c\u3082\u7720\u308c\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u307e\u3058\u3081\u306b\u8abf\u3079\u305f\u308a\u81ea\u5206\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u308a\u3057\u3066\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306a\u308a\u306b\u7d0d\u5f97\u306e\u3044\u304d\u305d\u3046\u306a\u8aac\u660e\u306b\u305f\u3069\u308a\u7740\u3044\u305f\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306f\u305d\u306e\u8a18\u9332\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u30e1\u30e2\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[19],"class_list":["post-12245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-finance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12245"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12255,"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12245\/revisions\/12255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jinmei.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}